With the Oscar nominations announced, it’s time to review the main categories. To predict the winners, to vent my frustrations about those who shouldn’t have been left out and those who didn’t deserve their nominations – and to develop a few theories along the way.
10. Best Animated Feature
The Winner: WALL-E
My Favorite: WALL-E
Worst Snub: Waltz with Bashir (Vals Im Bashir)
In the easiest category to predict, WALL-E is the definite winner. Bolt and Kung Fu Panda are sweet, funny, family movies. WALL-E, from the talented Pixar bunch, is visually stunning and deals with serious subjects like environmentalism.
Prize-Fixing: What I find puzzling is why Waltz with Bashir was omitted from this category and nominated only under the Foreign Film. Do the people calling the shots at the Oscars really think that Kung Fu Panda and Bolt are better movies? Or maybe they think both WALL-E and Bashir deserve an Oscar, so they didn’t put them in the same category. It’s never too soon to throw in a conspiracy theory…
9. Best Foreign Language
Der Baader Meinhof Komplex (Germany)
The Class (France)
Departures (Japan)
Revanche (Austria)
Waltz with Bashir (Israel)
The Winner: Waltz with Bashir
My Favorite: Waltz with Bashir
Worst Snub: Gomorra
Gomorra – a gritty depiction of modern day Italian crime families – is a surprising omission, considering its sweeping win of the European Film Awards and the Director prize at Cannes.
Waltz with Bashir is an animated documentary about war crimes (an original premise, you have to admit.) With an impressive stack of prizes already, including the Golden Globe, this critically acclaimed and thought-provoking film is most likely to win.
History Reversed: Last year an Austrian film (The Counterfeiters) took home the Oscar and left an Israeli anti-war film (Beaufort) empty-handed. This time it will probably be the other way around, with the Austrian film complimented and the Israeli film awarded.
8. Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Doubt
Penelope Cruz - Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis - Doubt
Taraji P. Henson - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Marisa Tomei - The Wrestler
The Winner: Amy Adams
My Favorite: Marisa Tomei and Amy Adams
Worst Snub: Debra Winger (Rachel Getting Married)
Ulterior Motive: Viola Davis and Taraji P. Henson had such small roles that I’m surprised they were even nominated. Marisa Tomei is mostly naked in most of her screen-time in The Wrestler. She’s very sexy - but I’m sure the guys at the Academy nominated her because of the way she said her (very few) lines…
That leaves us with Penelope Cruz and Amy Adams. I think Adams gave the better performance. Her filmography includes mostly light comedies like Enchanted, Tenacious D in The Pick of Destiny and Talladega Nights. In Doubt she displayed her –impressive - dramatic skills.
Debra Winger, the 80s’ unfulfilled promise (Urban Cowboy, An Officer and a Gentleman, Terms of Endearment), and, believe it or not, one of the voices of E.T., made a welcome, highly acclaimed return to the big screen in Rachel Getting Married. This talented actress that doesn’t act often enough, was at least worthy of a 4th Oscar Nomination.
7. Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin - Milk
Robert Downey Jr. - Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Doubt
Heath Ledger - The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road
The Winner: Heath Ledger
My Favorite: Robert Downey Jr
Worst Snub: Tom Cruise (Tropic Thunder)
History Repeats: Philip Seymour Hoffman was nominated last year but didn’t stand a chance against Javier Bardem’s convincing turn as the psychopathic serial killer in No Country For Old Men. This year Hoffman will lose again – to another actor who portrays a psychopath: Heath Ledger as The Joker. Needless to say, the fact that Ledger is dead improves his chances of winning.
If I was calling the shots, Robert Downey Jr. would get the Oscar. He was hilarious in Tropic Thunder as the method actor who is so devoted to his performance that he undergoes a skin color operation to be more convincing in his role as a black soldier.
Funny Bias: But the name I miss most in this category is Tom Cruise. Barely recognizable, his performance in Tropic Thunder was the wackiest and best of his career, with all due respect to Magnolia, Jerry Maguire, Rain Man and Born on the Fourth of July. But it’s unlikely the Academy will give a prize to actors participating in a silly (okay, very silly) comedy.
Behind the Hype: And here’s a chance to take a risk and say it out loud: Ledger’s Joker is not such an amazing performance, compared to Jack Nicholson’s in particular, or to Bardem’s if considering psychopaths at large. I would stop here and go hide from the fanboys, but I still have 6 categories left…
6. Best Original Screenplay
Andrew Stanton - WALL-E
Mike Leigh - Happy-Go-Lucky
Martin Mcdonagh - In Bruges
Dustin Lance Black - Milk
Courtney Hunt - Frozen River
The Winner: In Bruges
My Favorite: In Bruges
Worst Snub: Robert D. Siegel - The Wrestler
History Repeats: Milk, with its strong social themes (tragic biopic of the first gay elected public official) and brand names, seems likely to follow in the footsteps of Brokeback Mountain, another tragic, gay groundbreaking film. Even WALL-E is a possibility here. But because I love Martin Mcdonagh (writer and director of In Bruges)’s witty and hilarious dialogue, I’ll take a wild gamble on a surprise winner in this category.
The Upset: I won’t shed a tear, though, if the surprise would come from a different direction and the winner is Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky, a fascinating character study. Sally Hawkins is excellent as Poppy, striking just the right chord of cheerful yet not shrill or obnoxious. The movie is whip-smart and full of surprises - just when you are certain the story is going in a certain direction, Leigh gently nudges you down a different path. And you are glad.
I think The Wrestler should have been honored here. The movie got to 52 on IMDb’s 250 greatest movies of all times and got an amazing 98% positive reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Such a well-received movie should have been honored under one of the three major categories for movies: Best Picture, Screenplay or Direction.
5. Best Adapted Screenplay
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Doubt
Frost/Nixon
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
The Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
My Favorite: Slumdog Millionaire
Worst Snub: The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas
As far as I can tell, the moral lesson in The Reader goes something like this: illiteracy can turn you into a Nazi, so kids, when confronted with the dilemma of going to school or skipping and going to the beach, you better choose the first option or else…
Take Two: The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas succeeds where The Reader fails in creating an emotional Holocaust movie. It should have been nominated here instead of The Reader.
Doubt is a fair movie, which can be summed up by question: Did he sexually abuse a child or not? I’m quite sure he did, but there is a doubt…
Double Take: Frost/Nixon is great, but this year’s Oscars are all about Slumdog Millionaire vs. The Curious Case of Benjamin Button. These two movies got most of the important nominations - which made me wonder, what do they have in common? Here are the answers from our Movie Genome:
Romance, hope, youth and coming of age, loss of parent, a journey. Both are touching and sentimental. Actually, they have even more in common then I originally thought. But the better script - and the much better movie - is Slumdog Millionaire.
4. Best Director
David Fincher - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard - Frost/Nixon
Gus Van Sant - Milk
Stephen Daldry - The Reader
Danny Boyle - Slumdog Millionaire
The Winner: David Fincher
My Favorite: Danny Boyle
Worst Snub: Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)
I was amazed to see that Clint Eastwood (for Gran Torino) and Christopher Nolan (for The Dark Knight) were missing from this list of nominations. Both movies got a great reception from audiences and critics alike, and yet the Academy ignored them for some reason.
Pity Prize: In the previous category Slumdog was the winner. Here the Academy will give the Oscar to David Fincher (for Benjamin Button). But it would be what I call a “Scorsese Oscar”: when Scorsese won the Oscar for The Departed, it wasn’t because it was the best movie, but because the Academy compensated him for not getting a well-deserved Best Director Oscar for Taxi Driver, Raging Bull or Goodfellas. Benjamin Button is definitely not Fincher’s best film, but because he deserved it for Fight Club, Se7en and even The Game, he’ll get it now.
Boyle might be the next one in line to get the “Scorsese Oscar,” after Trainspotting and now Slumdog Millionaire don’t win him the prize.
3. Best Actress
Anne Hathaway - Rachel Getting Married
Angelina Jolie - Changeling
Melissa Leo - Frozen River
Meryl Streep - Doubt
Kate Winslet - The Reader
The Winner: Meryl Streep
My Favorite: Meryl Streep
Worst Snub: Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)
Quoting Ricky Gervais at the Golden Globe Awards: “Well done Winslet. I told you, do a Holocaust movie and the awards will come, didn’t I?”
Serial Loser: I guess Gervais jinxed her. Poor Kate – after a double jeopardy in the Golden Globes for both The Reader (supporting) and Revolutionary Road (leading), I predict at the Oscars she’ll be only applauding. The Academy pulled a trick on her, nominating her only once, for The Reader - but strangely as leading actress. So now her challenge is even tougher, and this unlucky serial loser is going to be disappointed for the 6th time!
Serial Winner: Why a tougher challenge? Because even though she’s already won the golden statue twice, Meryl Streep will win for her amazing performance in Doubt as Sister Aloysius Beauvier, the tough, uncompromising principal who’s sure that the charismatic priest is also a child molester.
I don’t know if Sally Hawkins’ performance in Happy-Go-Lucky is Oscar worthy (it was Golden Globes worthy), but she definitely should have been nominated.
2. Best Actor
Richard Jenkins - The Visitor
Frank Langella - Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn - Milk
Brad Pitt - The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Mickey Rourke - The Wrestler
The Winner: Frank Langella
My Favorite: Frank Langella
Worst Snub: Colin Farrell (In Bruges)
Richard Jenkins is the actor we all know, but we’re not sure from where. After a bit of head-scratching, Jenkins is fondly memorable as the dead father in Six Feet Under, and he recently appeared in Burn After Reading and Step Brothers. Hopefully after the nomination for The Visitor, we won’t forget him no more. But he’ll have to settle for the nomination as the Oscar will go elsewhere.
Trivia Record: Brad Pitt shouldn’t have been nominated here. Greg Cannom, his makeup artist, should have. Oh well, Cannom is nominated under the makeup category and that’s more than enough. Maybe the Academy wanted to set a trivia record of hubbie and wife both nominated as leading actors in the same year, as neither Jolie nor Pitt gave great performances (to put it mildly…).
Ham Award: Sean Penn usually gets nominated for an Oscar when he overacts: he was nominated for I am Sam and for Sweet and Lowdown. Now he’s nominated for overacting in Milk. I don’t really like those movies of his where he goes over the top, it’s quite annoying.
The Wrestler is Darren Aronofsky’s bleakest movie, and we’re talking about the guy responsible for Requiem for a Dream. Some say no one could have played the role of the wrestler except Mickey Rourke, and I tend to agree. Rourke was great in Sin City in 2005, then he made some bad movie choices (what’s new…?), and now he’s back with an unforgettable performance.
History Repeats: The only one who can prevent Mickey Rourke from getting the Oscar is Frank Langella with his portrayal of Richard Nixon. When people say Nixon, I think first of Frank Langella and only then of Richard Nixon - he’s that good! I place my bet on him. Poor Sean Penn has already been hurt cinematically by Nixon in The Assassination of Richard Nixon.
In a better world, Colin Farrell would have been nominated instead of Brad Pitt. Farrell used the great script by Martin McDonagh to give his best acting performance to date; it got him the Golden Globe but not even an Oscar nomination.
1. Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire
The Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
My Favorite: Slumdog Millionaire
Worst Snub: Gran Torino
Disappearing Acts: Let’s start with the absences. Justifiably absent is the disappointing Revolutionary Road, despite (or maybe because of) its big names (Did I say Winslet is jinxed?). Surprisingly absent is the most successful, acclaimed and talked-about film of the year, The Dark Knight. And to my disappointment, unjustifiably absent is Gran Torino. I think these two are much better candidates than The Reader, Milk and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
When the people who made The Reader met, I guess it went something like this: let’s take Bernhard Schlink’s book and make an updated version of The Graduate, with a twist. More sexual and daring than The Graduate, with the twist that this movie’s Mrs.Robinson will turn out to be a former Nazi. The first part of the movie is very sexual and daring, yes, even more than The Graduate. But the second part (the Nazi part) doesn’t work at all. Are we really supposed to feel sorry for her?
History Rewritten: Here’s a good place to stop and ask: Hey, what’s with the Good Nazi movement going on at the moment? Did all the studio heads secretly met and decided to produce movies with Good Nazis (The Reader, Valkyrie and The Boy in the Striped Pyjamas), because there were no more good survivor stories?
One-on-One: Let’s get back to our main issue. Although Frost/Nixon is a bit slow, it’s a brilliant psychological movie about a man’s downfall, and well worth watching even if you’re not big on history lessons. As I said, the movie’s leading actor Frank Langella will win the Oscar. The movie itself, though, won’t: Frost/Nixon, Milk and The Reader all know that the real fight is between Slumdog Millionaire and The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
As you may have noticed by now, I was disappointed by Benjamin Button. I think it’s a lesser version of Forrest Gump, or in other words, Forrest Gump sans humor (except for the guy who constantly gets hit by lightening – and no, it’s not Kenny…). The parts in which we see the dying Daisy (Cate Blanchett) mumbling in the hospital are difficult to understand (well, she is mumbling) and annoying. When you start watching the movie, you know how it’s going to end, and yet when you see Daisy holding baby Benjamin (Pitt), it just doesn’t feel right…
Birth of a Classic: Slumdog Millionaire is my favorite in this category. It’s a movie that’s almost impossible to hate (unless you’re a pompous critic). I dare suggest that maybe Slumdog is the new Shawshank Redemption: everybody likes it. With an emotional love story, a young orphan hero who grew up in terrible poverty and the whole underdog, against-the-odds, rags-to-riches themes, it’s just an irresistibly amazing combination of Rocky, City of God and Oliver Twist.
FROM: http://blog.jinni.com/2009/01/oscars-2009-wins-snubs-and-conspiracy-theories/
